By Jamilu M Magaji
Birnin Kebbi, Nigeria (Series News Online)— President Bola Ahmed Tinubu reaches his third year in office on Thursday, a milestone drawing sharp debate nationwide. Yet beyond political commentary, figures from government agencies, independent research bodies, and global development partners indicate clear policy shifts and early outcomes across Nigeria’s economy.
When he took over in May 2023, Tinubu inherited an economy strained by dwindling revenue, ballooning subsidy costs, exchange rate distortions, mounting debt, insecurity, and low investor confidence. Three years on, his administration argues that painful but necessary reforms are now forming the bedrock for sustainable growth.
Fiscal Reset and Economic Stability : The administration’s boldest moves were the removal of petrol subsidy and unification of the foreign exchange market. The policies sparked initial inflation and higher living costs, but officials say they have since strengthened public finances and macroeconomic fundamentals.
“According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria's economy recorded sustained growth across several quarters, with GDP expanding by 3.84 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven largely by services, agriculture and non-oil sectors,” the NBS report stated.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) also reported progress. “Reports from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) also indicate a gradual strengthening of external reserves and improved liquidity within the foreign exchange market,” CBN data showed.
Revenue collection improved markedly. “Available data released by the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) show that tax revenues have risen significantly since 2023, reflecting improved revenue mobilisation efforts,” the FIRS noted.
International assessment mirrored the trend. “Similarly, in its recent Article IV Consultation reports, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) acknowledged that Nigeria had undertaken major fiscal reforms aimed at restoring macroeconomic stability, improving public finances and enhancing investor confidence,” the IMF stated.
Push for Food Security Through Mechanisation:
Food security became a flagship under the Renewed Hope Agenda. The Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security rolled out a large-scale mechanisation drive to boost output and cut import dependence.
“According to the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, the government launched one of the largest agricultural mechanisation programmes in Nigeria's history, deploying over 2,000 tractors and more than 9,000 farming implements across farming communities nationwide,” the ministry disclosed.
The ministry added that “available records from the ministry also show increased investments in irrigation systems, mechanised farming and agricultural support programmes designed to improve local food production and reduce dependence on imports.”
Global experts support the approach. “The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has consistently emphasised mechanisation, improved inputs and productivity-driven reforms as critical tools for addressing food insecurity in developing economies, a position that aligns with the administration's agricultural intervention framework,” the FAO stated.
Security: Counter-Terrorism Operations Intensify:
Security remains a key scorecard for governance. Defence authorities report gains from sustained military campaigns against terrorists and bandits.
“According to figures released by the Defence Headquarters, military operations conducted under the current administration have led to the neutralisation of more than 8,000 terrorists and bandits, while over 11,600 criminal suspects have been arrested nationwide,” the Defence Headquarters said.
Officials also cited mass surrenders in the North-East. “Defence authorities further report that more than 124,000 Boko Haram and ISWAP fighters and their family members surrendered during intensified counter-insurgency operations in the North-East,” the statement read.
Independent trackers confirm shifting dynamics. “Independent monitoring platforms, including the Nigeria Security Tracker of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), have documented evolving security trends across conflict-prone regions, showing improvements in some areas even as challenges persist in others,” CFR and ACLED data indicated.
Government officials linked progress to reforms. “Government officials attribute these developments to increased investments in intelligence gathering, military hardware, surveillance systems and broader security sector reforms,” officials said.
Diversification and Industrial Growth:
The administration has prioritised reducing oil dependence by expanding industry and non-oil exports.
“According to the Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC), Nigeria's non-oil exports reached record levels in recent years, reflecting growing competitiveness in sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing and solid minerals,” the NEPC reported.
The Bank of Industry (BOI) highlighted financing support. “Data released by the Bank of Industry (BOI) show that hundreds of billions of naira have been disbursed to support businesses operating across manufacturing, agriculture, technology and other productive sectors,” BOI stated.
Investment interest is also rising. “Reports from the Nigerian Investment Promotion Commission (NIPC) also indicate growing investment commitments across strategic sectors of the economy,” NIPC said.
The World Bank reinforced the direction. “Similarly, successive Nigeria Development Update reports by the World Bank have highlighted the importance of economic diversification, revenue reforms and private-sector-led growth in sustaining long-term development,” the World Bank noted.
Outlook: From Reform to Results: Three years in, Nigeria is navigating a transition phase. Citizens still feel inflationary pressure, but institutional data point to measurable shifts.
“Three years into the Tinubu presidency, Nigeria remains in a period of economic and institutional transition. While many citizens continue to grapple with inflationary pressures and rising living costs, available data from the NBS, CBN, FIRS, NEPC, BOI, NELFUND, IMF, World Bank and other institutions suggest measurable shifts in revenue generation, infrastructure development, agricultural mechanisation, external reserves, non-oil exports and public sector reforms,” the analysis showed.
Policy makers maintain that short-term hardship will give way to long-term gain. “The pains associated with these reforms are temporary and necessary for long-term prosperity. Evidence from government agencies and international development institutions points to improvements in fiscal stability, infrastructure expansion, investment inflows and security operations, although many Nigerians are yet to fully experience these gains in their daily lives,” officials argued.
The test ahead is delivery. “Ultimately, history may judge the administration not only by the boldness of its reforms but by its ability to translate economic progress and policy achievements into tangible improvements in the welfare, incomes and opportunities of ordinary Nigerians,” observers noted.
As year four begins, early indicators suggest potential dividends. “As the government enters its fourth year, there are growing indications that the foundations laid through difficult but far-reaching reforms may begin to yield more visible dividends. If sustained with discipline, transparency and effective implementation, these policies have the potential to accelerate economic recovery, create jobs, attract investment and improve living standards. While challenges remain, there is reason for cautious optimism that the reforms undertaken today could deliver the inclusive growth and prosperity envisioned under the Renewed Hope Agenda,” analysts concluded.
Photo: The author
Mr . Jamilu M Magaji, a Public Affairs Analyst in Birnin Kebbi, can be reached at: mjmagaji@gmail.com.
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